Research honest enough to be checked.
AI can generate unlimited plausible analysis. A useful research process commits to a dated claim, names the evidence that will decide it, and returns when the result is known. Misses stay visible.
Ledger opened July 2026 · next public verdict due 2027-07-01 · The next unresolved public claim is the annual Robinhood Europe Stock Token KID review. The July 2026 materials claims were resolved and remain visible with their written revisits.
Waiting for the stated evidence or date.
The claim met its pre-stated test.
The evidence resolved in more than one direction.
The claim failed its pre-stated test.
| Claim | Resolution test | Due | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
EMC (2383.TW) July revenue holds above NT$16.74B, the floor that keeps year-over-year growth in triple digits. From The materials sell-off vs the June prints: what July revenue must show · published 2026-07-18 · research cut-off 2026-07-18 Amendment 2026-07-31: Amended before resolution to map the full outcome space: ≥ NT$17.7B → Confirmed. NT$16.74B–17.7B → Mixed. < NT$16.74B → Missed (with or without a guidance cut; a cut is corroborating context, not a required condition). Revisit: Resolved 2026-08-13 against the official July MOPS snapshot: EMC reported NT$19.2067B, above the ≥ NT$17.7B Confirmed band. The July read supports the continuation view; it does not establish valuation or causality. | MOPS July monthly revenue. At or above NT$17.7B supports the mispricing view; below NT$16.74B together with a guidance cut opens the structural-damage scenario. | 2026-08-10 | Confirmed |
The reported Kyber M9 delay does not bleed into the current ramp: Nan Ya PCB and Unimicron both hold July revenue roughly flat or higher month over month. From The materials sell-off vs the June prints: what July revenue must show · published 2026-07-18 · research cut-off 2026-07-18 Amendment 2026-07-31: Amended before resolution to replace 'roughly flat' with numeric bands, both companies measured MoM on MOPS July revenue: both ≥ −3% → Confirmed. One ≥ −3%, one below → Mixed. Both < −3% → Missed. Revisit: Resolved 2026-08-13 against the official July MOPS snapshot: Nan Ya PCB (8046.TW) was +16.13% MoM and Unimicron (3037.TW) was +9.11% MoM, both above the ≥ −3% Confirmed band. The timing issue remains contained in this test; it does not prove the full supply-chain thesis. | MOPS July monthly revenue for 8046.TW and 3037.TW. Both roughly flat or higher supports a contained timing issue; broad weakness would challenge that interpretation. | 2026-08-10 | Confirmed |
The ledger is not a hit-rate scoreboard. Its job is to preserve the original claim, the decision rule, and the eventual revisit without silently rewriting history. Read the underlying research.
Revisit policy: every claim receives a written revisit within 7 days of its due date, whether the outcome is confirmed, mixed, or missed.